[Repost]Rambling about Anime

 Popular peception doesn't equate to much given what I know of Japanese companies. It depends on who was doing the planning and the arbitrary goals they wanted from the product. For example, say both make a profit, wlel if that profit wasn't exactly up to the expectation, the product could still be deemed a failure in the eyes of the bureacracy at large irregardless of the consumers.

There's a whole slew of issues with this of course since private vs public companies, culture, etc affect the expectation. Given the Overlord Light Novels always had respectable sales could just as easily made someone eager to produce a back to back season expect to get say a certain percentage increase in novel sales only to not reach this target deem the whole thing  a failure on the executive side. Even if a profit was made on all fronts. This is how the world works, especially if they sunk more cost into the project than anticipated.

In regards to CG I've seen complaints from all degrees on the Japanese side as well. Westerner do tend to be whinier and more entitled to things being exactly a certain way however. then again Japanese fans can be far more critical of voice actor work or casting choices at times. Less people tend to be on hate trains at least since that's just the culture though. Even online there is more restraint. Well they also have more 'you didn't support the product so you don't have a right to complain either' mentality too. Extremes considered, the two different communities never felt too different even if subsets within their wholes can be vastly different in focus or appreciatoin or scope fo discourse.

From what i remember, second season tended to be held in lower regard than the third season beyond people who just didn't like Lizard and Carne arcs in general. That's more evident if you consider there were some staffing issues on the Overlord II production. If you rewatch it there are some clear pacing issues imo at least.

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From a fan perspective we may judge things differently from a less invested fans perspective however. Many people are fine with anime adaptations as their entry into a media franchise compared to source material fans. Anime will always be more accessible for a variety a reasons from the percentage of people who just don't like reading vs favoring performance media to the various aspects of anime that appeal to others like sound design/voice acting to art ascetic.

Now a series gaining or losing in popularity depends on several factors. Typically just like many corporations expect growth, they expect because of investment and product salience to naturally increase consumption of whatever product is in question. For an anime that is future seasons would have higher viewrs if the product built up fans over a span of years overtime as the anime was syndicated on platforms after it's initial run. This depends on the media however. Sometimes sequels diminish in viewership and sales too depending on the perception of it. "I can't just get into the third one before the others right?" or so on.

All I can say for sure about the sales were both anime seasons did contribute to improved light novel sales and the anime itself sold decently to well in regards to it's peers at least all things considered from the numbers I've seen. the primary issue is decent may not have been what was planned for in either regard. Like a double booking could of been in hopes of a far higher growth in both lines of media. That's how committees view these things. usually studios don't make that call evne if it did better than they expected. These committees are usually publishers, the channel airing it, Sony, etc which can play a role in casting or production.
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In Overlord's case the studio was part of the committee so it doing well season 1 probably was a factor in them getting to go for two more seasons, the PPP  and isekai quartet spin offs, and so forth along with Kadokawa's approval. The problem tends to be anime's don't finish adapting things because the publishers pull out seeing the bump being sustainable for a while and or not projected to be worth more seasons. the committees can try to convince for more seasons but it still comes down to these nebulous ideas of expectations and projectoins.  

That sounds like bullshit but market expectations differ based on time, staffing etc. Like now adays anime's aren't pulling in as many units of sales for anime releases post airing. This can likely be attributed to the decreased physical media demand with the rise of new platforms and service models of anime consumption in addition to sequel fatigue in the market. Animes tend to have that issue at least especially as their market is more fickle than say light novel consumers. Like how entitled they feel or how they will boycott an anime for dumb reasons at the most extreme.

Anyway, i won't argue that more people were invested into the next Overlord seasons but the profitability does not always correlate with this. I still stand by the difference in how they marketed the discs as telling of worries. The confounding variable is whether if it's just due to the market or a combination of that and Kadokawa possibly doubling down on projections and expectations.  
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If this sounds contrived, for a case example, when Nintendo was working with Intelligent Systems or whatever their stipulations or expectations for Fire Emblem were basically the newer installments had to perform at or around the same level as the remake or they were going to pull the plug on it. This was far more reasonable than some other companies expecting that something will perform at the AAA level with a little bit of meddling. These are cherry picked but hopefully you get the sentiment how people in the entertainment industry over can think.

Tangent aside, the light Novels themselves at least have demonstrated increased performance thanks in part due to the anime adaptations looking at correlation. Although the book sales are strong that can't necessarily imply further seasons if the committee situation doesn't work out based on things not going good on their end.

If we look at things cynically, isekai quartet and the PPP push could of been 'tests' of a fashion for the committee one to try for cross market appeal and possibly help fund things on the anime end if someone over estimated the performance of Overlord II and III after Overlord I.
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The problem on the Kadokawa end is actually an issue of riches. In terms of light novel performance, they are pretty much at the plateau already in terms of success. They are at the 200k pinnacle already now after all the anime advertising and so on. Like you could try to go for another season but they are not likely to see the explosive amount of sales they got from the other two in any shape or form based on pure percentages. They're already one of the top brands now.

If you consider the direction things are going into subject matter and how easy it would be to adapt to anime factors in as well. Volume's 12 and beyond get into subject matter a bit harder to get approval to broadcast for example. Certainly most anime don't need to worry about that due to their time slots etc. But when you start getting into concentration camps and what can be seen likened to genocide that's far cry from just someone wiping out soldiers en masse on a battlefield. Japan doesn't tend to be as squeamish about this but if some corporation reads or gets a brief on these events they can still pull out because of their concerns or lines being crossed.

Looking at quality, Q U A L I T Y, popularity, LN sales, Disc sales, the committee arrangement, the market share potential for growth, or the comparitive performance in isolation can't paint a clear picture of how things may go. I don't think there is a way to say for certain this or that will get adapted or marketed as it will. Shit like Jojo or Parasyte can get adaptations out of nowhere decades after their original runs, while years pass between seasons of a series before thely continue.